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Via Gallup:
President Donald Trump’s job approval is steady at 43%, while Americans’ ratings of the state of the nation and the U.S. economy are slightly improved from September.
The Sept. 30-Oct. 15 Gallup poll finds 43% of Americans approving and 55% disapproving of the job Trump is doing as president, matching the average for his recently completed 15th quarter in office, from mid-July to mid-October. The president’s ratings earlier this year included several 49% readings, the highest of his term to date.
The latest survey finds 90 percentage points separating Republicans’ (94%) and Democrats’ (4%) ratings of the president, exceeding by one point the previous high for Trump and any president since Gallup began compiling these data in 1953. In fact, 12 of the 13 largest party gaps Gallup has measured in a single survey have occurred during Trump’s administration, with most of them from this year.
Historically, presidents’ approval ratings have tended to be most polarized during their fourth year in office, when they are seeking reelection. Trump’s first-, second- and third-year average ratings were more polarized than any other president’s first three years, and his fourth year is on pace to be the most polarized presidential year in history.
Thirty-five percent of independents currently approve of the job Trump is doing.
The poll finds an improvement in Americans’ satisfaction with the way things are going in the United States — to 19% from 14% in September. The current satisfaction rating remains well below the historical average of 36%. It is similar to the levels Gallup measured around the time of the 1980 and 1992 presidential elections that saw incumbents Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush defeated for a second term in office. The lowest satisfaction recorded in a year when an incumbent was reelected was 33% in 2012.
Republicans are responsible for the improved satisfaction ratings this month, with 39% satisfied, up from 26% in September. Meanwhile, independents (14%) and Democrats (5%) remain highly dissatisfied with the state of the nation.
Even with the uptick this month, Republicans’ satisfaction is less than half what it was before the coronavirus pandemic. In February, with the economy doing well and Trump acquitted by the Senate in his impeachment trial, 80% of GOP loyalists were satisfiedwith the way things were going in the U.S.
Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index is currently -4, a modest improvement from -10 in September and up more substantially from -32 in April. The index was +41 before the coronavirus pandemic, which was the highest it had been in two decades.
The index summarizes Americans’ evaluations of the economy and their perceptions of whether it is improving. Currently, 33% rate the economy as excellent or good and 29% as poor. At the same time, more say it is getting worse (53%) than better (42%).
Republicans are quite positive about the economy, while Democrats are quite negative and independents slightly more negative than positive. Democrats’ confidence has barely recovered since April, while independents and Republicans have shown significant improvement. Republican confidence has recovered the most but is still not back to prepandemic levels. Independents are mostly responsible for the overall increase in confidence in the past month.
The 43.3% average job approval rating for Trump from mid-July to mid-August is lower than for most other elected presidents during their 15th quarters in office. Carter and Bush both had lower ratings in the final months before their unsuccessful reelection bids. The other presidents — all of whom won reelection — had job 15th-quarter averages closer to 50%.
Presidential job approval has been a reliable predictor of incumbent reelection success. Barack Obama’s late October and early November ratings — the earliest in his 16thquarter — were better than his 15th-quarter ratings. He registered 52% approval at the time of the 2012 election. George W. Bush’s ratings declined in late October 2004, and his approval rating was 48% when votes were cast, the lowest so far for an incumbent who won reelection.
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